First Ballot Results From Ontario PC Leadership Voting

by John Laforet
posted on June 27th, 2009 at 11:34:23 am

All ballots were cast on either June 21st or June 25th using a one member, one vote system with polls in each of the 107 provincial ridings in Ontario.

There was a total of 43 000 eligible party members.

Each riding’s result is weighted to 100 points per riding, points are attributed as a percent of each candidates popular vote.

First Ballot:

Elliott – 2738

Hillier – 1013

Hudak – 3511

Klees – 3093

Randy Hillier’s votes will be reapportioned among remaining candidates based on their second choice.

My Analysis:

It has to be a three ballot count at this point as Hillier’s 1013 votes, could not push any candidate over the top. This has a real impact on a number of things when you consider that the most likely outcome is that both Hillier and Elliott’s supporters second choice decisions are likely to chose the next leader. While it is unclear where Hillier’s support will go as ballots were cast in ridings across Ontario days ago, it will ultimately be most likely Elliott’s supporter’s second choices that will ultimately decide the outcome.

The political operative in me must note the incredible organization capacity it is clear the Klees campaign has put together. While Hudak’s numbers were fairly consistent in many areas of the province, it is clear the Klees folk put more strategy into focussing on hitting a number of ridings out of the park to secure their place in the game. They’ve landed within striking distance of Hudak, the front runner, and leading candidate at the end of the first ballot result.

I wouldn’t be comfortable calling this for anyone at this point as the combined effect of Hillier and Elliott’s reapportioned votes is larger than either the Hudak or Klees total. When 3741 secret ballots will determine the outcome of a race where one candidate would need 1663 of those votes to win and the other 2081 – there are simply too many unknowns, and the outcome is unpredictable.

Hillier and Elliott represent two very different ends of the political spectrum and each camp’s supporters will decide the outcome. As an example, Hillier’s support could go 80-20 to Hudak, but if Elliott’s supporters went 60-40 Klees – Frank Klees would be the next leader. With the natural friction that forms between front running candidates and among their supporters, I have difficulty believing that Hudak’s or Elliott’s supporters have overwhelmingly marked the other as their second choice.

Further – how many Hillier or Elliott folks simply have not marked a second choice?

Ladies and Gentlemen, it will certainly be an interesting afternoon here in Markham.

Markham Debate – How to Appeal to GTA Voters and Approach to the Human Rights Commission

by John Laforet
posted on June 10th, 2009 at 21:42:34 pm

The PC candidates had the final of four regional leadership debates tonight in Ottawa. Next Wednesday TVO will be airing a debate between candidates moderating by Steve Pakin.

Below are exchanges between the four candidates on reaching out to GTA voters and their plans on the Human Rights Commission that occurred at last week’s debate in Markham Ontario.

Interview with PC Leadership Candidate Randy Hillier

by John Laforet
posted on June 5th, 2009 at 20:46:35 pm

The single largest impression I got from my time speaking with Randy Hillier and observing him at the debate, both on and off camera was the passion he brings to the issues he champions and his candidacy in general. I observed him truly in his element after the debate as he worked the halls as people exited. Always smiling, frequently laughing with party members, Hillier demonstrated an ease and comfort at connecting with people on a personal level. His sincerity may be his candidacy’s greatest asset.

Randy Hillier’s platform clearly is based on conversations he’s had around kitchen tables, in coffee shops and diners around Ontario. His messaging comes from the heart. He is a candidate that isn’t afraid of controversy and freely says what he thinks. Agree or not with Randy Hillier on policy, all of those following this race can at least recognize his ability to generate real discussion about what the future of the Ontario PC Party should be.

For more on Randy Hillier visit http://www.hillierforleader.com/