First Ballot Results From Ontario PC Leadership Voting

by John Laforet
posted on June 27th, 2009 at 11:34:23 am

All ballots were cast on either June 21st or June 25th using a one member, one vote system with polls in each of the 107 provincial ridings in Ontario.

There was a total of 43 000 eligible party members.

Each riding’s result is weighted to 100 points per riding, points are attributed as a percent of each candidates popular vote.

First Ballot:

Elliott – 2738

Hillier – 1013

Hudak – 3511

Klees – 3093

Randy Hillier’s votes will be reapportioned among remaining candidates based on their second choice.

My Analysis:

It has to be a three ballot count at this point as Hillier’s 1013 votes, could not push any candidate over the top. This has a real impact on a number of things when you consider that the most likely outcome is that both Hillier and Elliott’s supporters second choice decisions are likely to chose the next leader. While it is unclear where Hillier’s support will go as ballots were cast in ridings across Ontario days ago, it will ultimately be most likely Elliott’s supporter’s second choices that will ultimately decide the outcome.

The political operative in me must note the incredible organization capacity it is clear the Klees campaign has put together. While Hudak’s numbers were fairly consistent in many areas of the province, it is clear the Klees folk put more strategy into focussing on hitting a number of ridings out of the park to secure their place in the game. They’ve landed within striking distance of Hudak, the front runner, and leading candidate at the end of the first ballot result.

I wouldn’t be comfortable calling this for anyone at this point as the combined effect of Hillier and Elliott’s reapportioned votes is larger than either the Hudak or Klees total. When 3741 secret ballots will determine the outcome of a race where one candidate would need 1663 of those votes to win and the other 2081 – there are simply too many unknowns, and the outcome is unpredictable.

Hillier and Elliott represent two very different ends of the political spectrum and each camp’s supporters will decide the outcome. As an example, Hillier’s support could go 80-20 to Hudak, but if Elliott’s supporters went 60-40 Klees – Frank Klees would be the next leader. With the natural friction that forms between front running candidates and among their supporters, I have difficulty believing that Hudak’s or Elliott’s supporters have overwhelmingly marked the other as their second choice.

Further – how many Hillier or Elliott folks simply have not marked a second choice?

Ladies and Gentlemen, it will certainly be an interesting afternoon here in Markham.

PC Leadership Convention Attendee Interview – Shirley Porter

by John Laforet
posted on June 27th, 2009 at 02:36:44 am

Shirley Porter is a PC Party member from Markham Unionville. While she did not disclose who she cast her ballot for, Shirley gave some very interesting insight into the race, the need for sound, tested and properly packaged policy.

It should also be noted that Shirley is a twitterer and can be found @shirleyporter She is somebody I follow, you should too.

PC Leadership Convention Attendee Interview – Jim McBane

by John Laforet
posted on June 27th, 2009 at 02:17:38 am

Jim McBane is a PC party member from Algoma Manitoulin and a Frank Klees supporter. I spoke to Jim about the candidate he is supporting, the work his party needs to undertake between now and 2011, and party unity. Hear what he has to say below.