Posts Tagged ‘Offshore Wind Power Ontario’
Does Premier McGuinty Really Support Spending $660 Million to Create 200 Temporary Construction Jobs?
Let’s face it, on a project that no wind expert to date thinks is going to be economically viable. And to think, a few days ago $24 Million spent on lawyers looked bad. Based on reasonable calculations, it can be expected that the proposed offshore wind turbines in Scarborough will lose a collective $310 million bucks over 20 years.
Want to challenge my facts? Call me names? Just read this first.
“He’s counting on the (Green Energy) act, of which few details have been released, to help create 50,000 jobs over the next three years and boost the amount of renewable energy feeding into the electricity grid to fight climate change.” McGuinty Vows to Stop Wind-Farm NIMBYists – Toronto Star February 11th 2009.
“Taking a swipe at those who oppose wind turbines off the Scarborough Bluffs, Premier Dalton McGuinty is signalling he won’t hesitate to foist “green” energy projects on communities across Ontario.” McGuinty Vows to Stop Wind-Farm NIMBYists – Toronto Star February 11th 2009.
OK – So the Premier took a shot at Scarborough, an area with six Liberal MPPS and three who represent the Scarborough Bluffs area.He forgets that Scarborough is the City’s pioneer in waste diversion and has fought harder to preserve the environment than anywhere else in the City. The Premier suggests his Green Energy Act will create 50 000 jobs by ending our democratic right to oppose bad government decisions and by stripping already non existent environmental controls.
Basically the Toronto Hydro Energy Services project team, led by Joyce McLean, did such a horrible job at responding to community concerns they lost control of the project and needed McGuinty to step in and use his position to dismantle well established democratic freedoms for force the project through to create these 50 000 jobs so called ‘NIMBYists’ were holding up.
Let’s look at the economics of the Toronto Hydro Energy Services plan and use facts from the Premier’s mouth, PACE Global Energy Services – an independent consultant on the proposed cancelled Long Island offshore wind farm, and Toronto Hydro Energy Services to figure out the economic impact.
First though some background. PACE was hired to look at the economic feasibility of an offshore wind farm off of Long Island. They ultimately concluded it was an economic no go, but in the process provided a methodology for determining the cost of offshore wind in North America. They pointed out a few interesting facts like “GE is the likely supplier of these off-shore wind turbines, but no turbine supplier is well mobilized to provide offshore turbines to the North American market.” (Page 7, Assessment of Offshore Power Resources, August 2007)
“Pace Global reviewed the cost estimates provided by FPLE. The cost of the wind farm alone is $5,231 per kW, while LIPA’s underwater cable and on-shore substation upgrade costs elevate the project’s costs to $5,634 per kW.” (Page 1, Assessment of Offshore Power Resources, August 2007)
Although the higher figure is probably more accurate, let’s use the lower figure to limit the room for folks who trash talk me to criticize me. — And let’s not forget the exchange rate.
“On 18 Feb 2009, 5231 U.S. dollar(s) = 6,588.97 Canadian dollar(s), at an exchange rate of 1.2596″ Bank of Canada Exchange Rate Calculator
“The goal, says Toronto Hydro chief executive Dave O’Brien, is to establish a 60-turbine offshore wind farm capable of generating 100 megawatts.” Hydro eyes new wind farm on Bluffs – Toronto Star June 25th 2008
There are 1000 kilowatts in a megawatt. There are 100 megawatts of capacity being proposed for this project putting the cost, conservatively at $658 897 000. That’s right. $660 Million dollars.
How many jobs does Toronto Hydro Energy Services think this will create? 200 short term jobs.
“Short-term employment of an estimated 200 construction jobs and long-term employment of skilled operators and maintainers.” Research Anemometer In Lake Ontario: Toronto Hydro Energy Services Oct 2008
Thats nearly $3.3 million per short term job created.
To create 50 000 jobs as the Premier would like to by ‘forcing’ communities to install poorly thought out wind projects like this, the Premier would have to spend $164 724 250 000. Yup. Over a $164 billion dollars.
So now someone is going to say ‘but the pay back, but the pay back’. Let’s pretend for a minute that the same folks who messed up with the Exhibition turbine (and who are running this project) don’t fail as badly as last time. Let’s pretend that instead of their pathetic 12% five year average output capacity they can match the 18% output capacity of the Pickering turbine. We’ll not use this opportunity to mention that these projects are bookends to the proposed offshore site, and that virtually all research indicates there isn’t adequate wind to meet the minimum viability thresholds or that neither of these will even pay back the original investment over twenty years.
At a twenty year (the length turbines last before needing to be replaced) output average of 18% (remember this is the highest output data we have for a project near this site), even before we factored in the cost of interest or maintenance the project would lose $309 478 120. That’s right, $310 Million. (This is based on the 11.08 cents per kWh rate Ontario buy’s wind power at.)
Wouldn’t it be smarter to do a full environmental review, to follow international standards for nature conservation and turbine siting, to consider all available data and save ourselves $310 million that can probably be better used doing virtually anything else? Call me NIMBY all you want, but if you think blowing $310 million bucks and doing untold damage to the environment because you were in such a rush to install a project without scientific or economic merit is a good idea, you’re not an environmentalist, you’re an idiot.
Once Again, I gladly invite Joyce McLean or anyone else at the Toronto Hydro Energy Services team to respond to any of the claims I’ve made here. This is a standing offer that has been in place for weeks now.
