Posts Tagged ‘Frank Klees’
Ontario PC Leadership Race Second Ballot Results
The Story? The unstoppable Tim Hudak.
Second Ballot Results:
Elliott 2903 (+ 175)
Hudak 4128 (+ 617)
Klees 3299 (+ 206)
Elliott dropped from the ballot. Her supporters second choices will be redistributed based on their second choices.
Tim Hudak received the lion’s share of Randy Hillier’s supporters second votes, with Klees and Elliott basically splitting the difference, both falling further behind Hudak as Elloitt is dropped.
At this point Frank Klees would need to receive 65% or more of Elliott’s supporters to beat Hudak. It should also be noted that many of Elliott’s supporters may not have cast a second option, partly because she was one of two perceived front runners, and secondly because her policies positioned her as an outlier.
While the folks who are tabulating the result tabulate, I will speculate that Tim Hudak will be the next Leader of the Opposition.
1 Comment »First Ballot Results From Ontario PC Leadership Voting
All ballots were cast on either June 21st or June 25th using a one member, one vote system with polls in each of the 107 provincial ridings in Ontario.
There was a total of 43 000 eligible party members.
Each riding’s result is weighted to 100 points per riding, points are attributed as a percent of each candidates popular vote.
First Ballot:
Elliott – 2738
Hillier – 1013
Hudak – 3511
Klees – 3093
Randy Hillier’s votes will be reapportioned among remaining candidates based on their second choice.
My Analysis:
It has to be a three ballot count at this point as Hillier’s 1013 votes, could not push any candidate over the top. This has a real impact on a number of things when you consider that the most likely outcome is that both Hillier and Elliott’s supporters second choice decisions are likely to chose the next leader. While it is unclear where Hillier’s support will go as ballots were cast in ridings across Ontario days ago, it will ultimately be most likely Elliott’s supporter’s second choices that will ultimately decide the outcome.
The political operative in me must note the incredible organization capacity it is clear the Klees campaign has put together. While Hudak’s numbers were fairly consistent in many areas of the province, it is clear the Klees folk put more strategy into focussing on hitting a number of ridings out of the park to secure their place in the game. They’ve landed within striking distance of Hudak, the front runner, and leading candidate at the end of the first ballot result.
I wouldn’t be comfortable calling this for anyone at this point as the combined effect of Hillier and Elliott’s reapportioned votes is larger than either the Hudak or Klees total. When 3741 secret ballots will determine the outcome of a race where one candidate would need 1663 of those votes to win and the other 2081 – there are simply too many unknowns, and the outcome is unpredictable.
Hillier and Elliott represent two very different ends of the political spectrum and each camp’s supporters will decide the outcome. As an example, Hillier’s support could go 80-20 to Hudak, but if Elliott’s supporters went 60-40 Klees – Frank Klees would be the next leader. With the natural friction that forms between front running candidates and among their supporters, I have difficulty believing that Hudak’s or Elliott’s supporters have overwhelmingly marked the other as their second choice.
Further – how many Hillier or Elliott folks simply have not marked a second choice?
Ladies and Gentlemen, it will certainly be an interesting afternoon here in Markham.
2 Comments »PC Leadership Convention Attendee Interview – Jim McBane
Jim McBane is a PC party member from Algoma Manitoulin and a Frank Klees supporter. I spoke to Jim about the candidate he is supporting, the work his party needs to undertake between now and 2011, and party unity. Hear what he has to say below.
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