Posts Tagged ‘Elizabeth May’
On the Green Party’s Chances at Winning Seats
So most pundits don’t think the Green Party is going to win any seats. They may be right. A lot of people think that Elizabeth May was crazy for picking Central Nova as her entrance to Parliament. They could be right.
But anyone who has run understands that in politics money is absolutely an essential aspect of running any sort of credible campaign.
Literature costs money, signs cost money, buttons cost money, campaign offices cost money. The Green Party isn’t exactly a party that is flush with money.
I would be hesitant to call any seats for the Greens, possibly with the exception of Central Nova maybe, but I do want to make a point as a guy who has run for office without a whole lot of money.
Let’s look at a couple of ridings that as a guy who follows politics I’ve arbitrarily decided it is worth watching the Green Party in.
They are Central Nova, Vancouver Centre, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast- Sea to Sky Country (Imagine this guys business card!)
Central Nova:
Winner in 2006: Peter MacKay 41% of the Vote
Green in 2006: David Orton 1.6% of the Vote
With no Liberal candidate running that puts about 25% of the vote in play. But there are some other differences.
The spending limit in Central Nova, $75 650.95
The Green Party campaign spent a whopping $901.04
Peter MacKay spent $56051.98
Anyone think Elizabeth May is spending anything less than $75 650.95?
Vancouver Centre
Winner in 2006: Hedy Fry 44% of the Vote
Green in 2006: Jared Evans 6% of the Vote
The spending limit in Vancouver Centre, $86 257.47
The Green Party campaign spent a whopping $1008.00
Hedy Fry spent $77 825.88
Adriene Carr is the Deputy Leader of the Green Party of Canada and the former Leader of the BC Greens. I fully expect she will be spending far closer to the $ 86 257.47 than the previous Green Party candidate did.
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
Winner in 2006: Blair Wilson 38% of the Vote
Green in 2006: Silvaine Zimmermann 6% of the Vote
The spending limit in West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, $93 260.52
The Green Party campaign spent a whopping $3,531.87.04
Blair Wilson spent $82,303.71
As an incumbent MP defending his day job and running for a party that has never won a seat, I strongly expect Wilson will be far closer to that $93 260.52 than Zimmermann was.
Green Party Bi-Election Strength
Elizabeth May spent more than any other candidate in London North Centre and came a remarkable second.
In Toronto Centre where Chris Tindal beat the Conservative candidate and essentially tied the NDP for second place, he spent just under $60 000, still the bottom of the pack, but much closer.
My Point
When Green Party candidates spend money and run local races that are well financed they do really well. Their candidates who spend less than I did when running for Toronto City Council, have about as much chance of claiming a seat as I did.
As crappy as the message is, there is a direct corrilation between campaign expenses and vote count. The money you spend is spent reaching and pulling voters, plain and simple. The Green message resonates but often does not get heard locally. Canadian elections are not won in the air war, but on the ground where strong local campaigns deliver the flyers, knock the doors and hammer in signs.
While I don’t think May will come anywhere near her dozen seat goal, I do suspect if she is to see any gains it will be in ridings where they spend at the same level as everyone else, and in these three ridings, I expect they will compete well and these candidates will go all out to win.
1 Comment »Me Thinks Peter MacKay is Running Scared
Cheap shots like “I’ve been here, I haven’t been taking a train across the country,” lead me to believe “Potato patch” Pete might be running just a tad scared. I would be too if I had to face off against Elizabeth May and I knew that in the last election I had won with just 41% of the vote. I wonder if he saw that time she knocked a Tory into 3rd place and came 2nd in a bi-election before all this great press she has been getting?
Does anyone remember that time when Peter MacKay was a party leader for like three minutes? Remember 2003, he lied to everyone and said he was not a merger candidate, and even signed an agreement with David Orchard because he was that desperate to take the helm of the Progressive Conservative party? You know, the party three proud Nova Scotian Prime Ministers (Tupper, Thompson and Bordon). If he had lost as was expected, the right may not have united and Prentice and Harper would have been fighting over who was the better Conservative. What could have been…
I guess considering it was just six months of his life before he broke his promise and hopped into bed with Harper maybe it is hard for him to remember too. He may be the only leader of a party elected at convention never to face the electorate, having folded his party before there was an opportunity to do so.
The point I’m trying to make, is that Peter MacKay, a man who saw his party fall from relevence under his short tenure before handing it over to Harper is hardly one to talk about the pressures of leadership and the responsibility of a leader to visit other ridings. It should also be noted his vote percentage has also fallen in the last three elections.
I guess as the Foreign Affairs Minister and later Defense Minister MacKay doesn’t need to travel away from home, or at least doesn’t want to talk about it so often.
To be fair, the only time I ever heard MacKay speak from Central Nova was that time Belinda Stronach crossed the floor and after locking himself in his office on the Hill for the afternoon, Peter flew home to spend time with his dog and tend his father’s fields… I suspect after the 14th, MacKay will be back in the potato patch and it will be Elizabeth May who sent him there. At least this time, he won’t have to fly all the way back after an embarrassing incident on the Hill.
So I went to a Green Party Rally Tonight…
Its true.
I did.
Tonight Elizabeth May’s Green train rolled into Union station on the last leg of the Vancouver to Toronto stretch. The Green Party held a rally at the Hockey Hall of Fame that was meant to start at 8pm. May’s train however was three hours late and so was the rally.I grabbed a coffee and then came back.
I have to say I was very impressed by the show they put on. Candidates from across the GTA assembled and with them probably 250 or so Green Party members. May came into thunderous applause and started by sharing stories from the rails.
The basic message: Stephen Harper is a control freak. He is a calculating politician. He does not like being close to regular Canadians. He very likely is a family man, and Canadians should let him spend more time with his family. I tend to agree with that assessment.
Apparently a former Davis Minister and a former Nuclear Disarmament Ambassador who was also a Progressive Conservative have endorsed the Green Party. One did so in Edmonton and the other in Northern Ontario.
I think having May in the debate will really shake up this campaign. Her comments about Harper were strong and funny. She may be the most lively of the leader’s and with any luck can give ’say anything’ Jack a run for his money when she isn’t at Harper’s throat.
It was great to catch up with the Green Party Riding President for Scarborough Guildwood, someone who is very involved in our community outside of partisan politics as well. I also had the opportunity to meet the local Green candidate who has served on the executives of both the Federal Conservatives and Liberals in Scarborough East in the last decade. Regardless of who we are supporting on the hustings there is broad agreement about what is at stake in this election and a commitment to local community. Something I hope Canadians across the spectrum will see as well.
As a contrast, if Jack Layton or Stephen Harper held a rally in my living room, I would not attend. That is because each of those leaders is guided by a narrow ideology that does not allow for Canadians from across the spectrum to subscribe to their views. Liberals are guided by a desire to make Canada a better place and a willingness to reach out to Canadians from across the spectrum to solve the issues of the day. The Greens have a dedication to the future of the planet and have a similar guiding principle that is above ideology.
I sincerely hope May takes the seat in Central Nova, and can eat into the support of both the Tories and NDP so that our national debates can be about substantive policy and not gaffes, nudists (whether Conservative or NDP), or to what extent illegal drug use is appropriate for a candidate for public office.
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