That was not the case here. 

Tim Hudak’s victory does undeniably signal a shift to the right for the PC Party. How far right or what that right is like is still unknown. I don’t buy the ‘he’s a younger Mike Harris’ simply because I believe Hudak is wise enough to understand that the Harris and Eves governments did make mistakes, some policies were not popular and in some cases caused a lot of hurt to folks. I don’t believe anyone would want to re-fight the divisive battles of the mid to late nineties and I believe Tim Hudak as leader recognizes that as well. 

Unlike Andrea Horwath’s victory as NDP leader where many recognized that the baggage that came with the 1990-1995 experience in government had to be left behind because she was clearly not associated with that, and had a very different vision, Hudak will need to work on his image to ensure that voters in Ontario see him as his own man and are comfortable enough with who he is and what he is about to consider electing him Premier. 

I was asked immediately after Hudak won and in the couple of hours that followed by some folks what my thoughts were on the outcome and more pointedly his ability to win. What I said was this, ‘If the party wanted to win a majority very easily, than Christine Elliott was the candidate to elect. However, what became clear during my time covering the race, and speaking with Conservatives is the party is farther to the right than she is, and more comfortable with a guy like Hudak’. Hudak could well win a majority government in 2011, but he’ll need to convince folks that the stuff on the front page of the Toronto Star today isn’t true first. 

I completely understand why Mike Harris is so well liked by PC members, but PC members need to also try to understand why many issues based, and ‘swing voters’ defeated them in 2003, if they are intent to form government in 2011. 

Speaking with him both on and off camera on a range of issues I got a real sense that he is genuine and firmly believes what he stands for and speaks out for. 

His task now is presenting himself to Ontario voters in a way that folks in the 416 and 905 can be as comfortable with him as folks in the 519, 705 and 613. I think he’s up to the task, it’s now just a question of how willing and able he and the people around him, and more importantly his caucus is prepared to work on that. 

Personally, I am an undecided voter with no party affiliation who would love to see both the NDP and the PCs get to the point of being able to each offer Ontarians the kinds of policies that would allow either to form government in advance of the 2011 election. 

This is the unedited Ontario NDP response to Tim Hudak’s victory, straight from the Canada News Wire NDP Leader Andrea Horwath congratulates Hudak. 

    “I want to congratulate Tim Hudak on his successful run for the leadership of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. I look forward to working with him in this exciting new role.

    I also want to thank former PC Leader John Tory and interim Leader Bob Runciman for their service. While we differed on many issues, we were able to work together in the Legislature with mutual respect.

    I am confident that respect will continue with Tim and I wish him congratulations tonight.”

This is the unedited Ontario Liberal Party response to Tim Hudak’s victory, straight from the Canada News Wire Harris wannabe squeaks by at Conservative convention.

Deal with Hillier and plan to scrap human rights protections prove Hudak is out of touch with Ontarian’s values

    MARKHAM, ON, June 27 /CNW/ – Ontario Conservatives moved further back to the old Mike Harris era and further out of touch with today’s Ontario in selecting Tim Hudak as their Leader.

    Hudak’s victory is owed largely to the support of radical-right wing candidate Randy Hillier. Hillier’s pledge of support came after Hudak followed Hillier in attacking the human rights protections Ontarians have valued for decades.

    Hudak followed the Mike Harris playbook with negative, divisive pledges to rip up contracts of nurses and teachers. In addition, Hudak has pledged to slash funding for construction of new hospitals, schools and transit in communities across Ontario – which would throw thousands out of work in the middle of a global economic crisis.

    “Ontario families don’t want to go back to the days of the Harris-gang calling the shots and Tim Hudak following,” said Liberal MPP Chris Bentley.

“Ontarians rejected that approach and don’t want to look back.”

My Commentary:

The Ontario NDP did not have any staffers or members of caucus present at the Ontario PC Leadership election. By my count, the Ontario Liberal Party had one Cabinet Minister and four staffers who are full time employees receiving salaries from taxpayer funds. Instead of handing out factually inaccurate and embarrassingly pathetic attacks on candidates at the PC convention, the NDP let the Tories have their weekend undisturbed, unprovoked. 

This to me is a clear demonstration that Andrea Horwath gets that politics doesn’t have to be negative, and hopefully the Ontario NDP decision not to use taxpayers money for partisan purposes (unlike the Ontario Liberal Party) is a demonstration of their rejection of that cynical practice as well. 

I’ve always liked Andrea Horwath, and see her response to Tim Hudak, someone I’m sure she disagrees with on almost everything with, demonstrates a decency that politics is missing. That is something I definitely admire and am happy to see Horwath demonstrating. 

When John Tory stepped down after his bi-election defeat, I felt for him. The raw emotion he displayed at his final press conference as leader made it very difficult to not see the well intentioned man who was unfairly pilloried right out of public life.

Over the last number of weeks, as speculation has mounted about whether Tory will run for Mayor of Toronto – its an idea, I frankly think is a good one, and a candidacy I could easily find myself supporting and encouraging others to.

I spoke with John Tory today after his tribute and had a really good chat with him about a number of topics. He shared with me that two of his proudest accomplishments as leader of the Ontario PCs has been the work the party did on outreach, making the PC Party a bigger tent, and the fundraising work he undertook to clear the party of it’s debt and prepare for the fight in 2007.

We spoke about the intense political career he’s had, the six elections in five years he’s faced and the great challenge and impact on his ability to do other things as leader. On that point, if viewed through the lens of John Tory’s commitment to public service and participation, it is nothing but admirable.

Tory recognizes the need for a clearer message when facing voters, and I made a point of not asking or talking about the religious education funding thing and instead focussed on Tory’s timing issue. In 2003 when he ran for Mayor, Torontonian’s were close but not totally open to the idea. In 2006, many Torontonians had wished Tory had not become Leader of the Opposition so he could re-contest that fight. I suspect with the current economic crisis, folks who cared and voted based on religious education are re-thinking their decision.

Now that John Tory has left public life and isn’t a candidate for anything for the first time in five years, I think someone like me would be ready to give a guy like John Tory a try. I guess that’s what being post partisan has done to me at least.

Second Ballot Results:

Elliott 2903 (+ 175)
Hudak 4128 (+ 617)
Klees 3299 (+ 206)

Elliott dropped from the ballot. Her supporters second choices will be redistributed based on their second choices.

Tim Hudak received the lion’s share of Randy Hillier’s supporters second votes, with Klees and Elliott basically splitting the difference, both falling further behind Hudak as Elloitt is dropped.

At this point Frank Klees would need to receive 65% or more of Elliott’s supporters to beat Hudak. It should also be noted that many of Elliott’s supporters may not have cast a second option, partly because she was one of two perceived front runners, and secondly because her policies positioned her as an outlier.

While the folks who are tabulating the result tabulate, I will speculate that Tim Hudak will be the next Leader of the Opposition.

But what the folks at the Ontario Liberal Party, or more appropriately the political staff at Queen’s Park have done this weekend requires comment.

This video below will cover two press releases I received from two Liberal staffers that were being distributed to all media. They can hardly say they didn’t want it covered, but they may not like my angle.

There was a total of 43 000 eligible party members.

Each riding’s result is weighted to 100 points per riding, points are attributed as a percent of each candidates popular vote.

First Ballot:

Elliott – 2738

Hillier – 1013

Hudak – 3511

Klees – 3093

Randy Hillier’s votes will be reapportioned among remaining candidates based on their second choice.

My Analysis:

It has to be a three ballot count at this point as Hillier’s 1013 votes, could not push any candidate over the top. This has a real impact on a number of things when you consider that the most likely outcome is that both Hillier and Elliott’s supporters second choice decisions are likely to chose the next leader. While it is unclear where Hillier’s support will go as ballots were cast in ridings across Ontario days ago, it will ultimately be most likely Elliott’s supporter’s second choices that will ultimately decide the outcome.

The political operative in me must note the incredible organization capacity it is clear the Klees campaign has put together. While Hudak’s numbers were fairly consistent in many areas of the province, it is clear the Klees folk put more strategy into focussing on hitting a number of ridings out of the park to secure their place in the game. They’ve landed within striking distance of Hudak, the front runner, and leading candidate at the end of the first ballot result.

I wouldn’t be comfortable calling this for anyone at this point as the combined effect of Hillier and Elliott’s reapportioned votes is larger than either the Hudak or Klees total. When 3741 secret ballots will determine the outcome of a race where one candidate would need 1663 of those votes to win and the other 2081 – there are simply too many unknowns, and the outcome is unpredictable.

Hillier and Elliott represent two very different ends of the political spectrum and each camp’s supporters will decide the outcome. As an example, Hillier’s support could go 80-20 to Hudak, but if Elliott’s supporters went 60-40 Klees – Frank Klees would be the next leader. With the natural friction that forms between front running candidates and among their supporters, I have difficulty believing that Hudak’s or Elliott’s supporters have overwhelmingly marked the other as their second choice.

Further – how many Hillier or Elliott folks simply have not marked a second choice?

Ladies and Gentlemen, it will certainly be an interesting afternoon here in Markham.

It should also be noted that Shirley is a twitterer and can be found @shirleyporter She is somebody I follow, you should too.