Watch Minnon-Wong, Thompson, Stintz and Smitherman in 2009

by John Laforet
posted on January 1st, 2009 at 17:44:02 pm

Royson James pondered who would attempt the near impossible feat of defeating David Miller in the 2010 election in his article today. He rightly pointed out, anyone who is serious about running a legitimate campaign against an incumbent mayor would basically need to get the wheels in motion now. James suggests that City Hall is lacking in prospects who could step up to the task of challenging Miller. To be clear, I am not suggesting Miller is invincible, but there is enough apathy out there to allow for coasting on name recognition if a spirited opposition campaign does not materialize.

Of the Mayor’s allies, should Miller not run I would suspect Vaughen, Carroll, Giambrone, De Baeremaeker and possibly Bussin would be interested in running for the top job. Because they are all current Miller allies, should he run they would all likely sit quietly and continue to support him. Even if he didn’t run, I would expect that Carroll would carry the Mayor’s flag into battle and most of his Council supporters would fall in.

Miller’s opposition is considerably less organized and has a far bigger challenge. Councillors like Ford, Mammolitti, Nunziatta, and Ootes are too controversial or lack the required name recognition to successfully run for Mayor. Because of this, they lack the ability to raise the required million bucks and build broad enough support to actually make it happen. Of Miller’s opposition, Michael Thompson, Karen Stintz and Denzil Minnon-Wong have all been auditioning for Mayoral runs basically since their last election to Council.

The biggest factor weighing on the minds of any current Councillor who is thinking of reaching for the Mayor’s Chair must be the possibility for defeat. Should they run and lose, unlike a Councillor who is running for Parliament or the Legislature, or a party leader who is seeking to be Premier or Prime Minister, losers are without seats. It is basically game over for them at that point. At least in the municipal arena. Jane Pitfield is the last current member of Council to run and lose a Mayor’s race. Currently she is the President of the 53 member Caledon Heritage Foundation, which is a considerable step down from Toronto City Councillor or Mayor. The only other current member of Council to run for Mayor did so in 2003, it was David Miller and an open race with no incumbent.

Pitfield’s defeat probably will give pause to members of Miller’s vocal opposition, as it demonstrated simply not being Miller isn’t enough to beat him. If any current member of Council is to run against the Mayor they will need to do it with the open support of others. My guess is somewhere between Minnon-Wong, Thompson and Stintz we will see one candidate who is sick of sitting around and losing fight after fight, stand up to either win, or no longer be a member of a Council that is steering the City in a direction they don’t want it to go. That ultimately was Pitfield’s articulation of balancing the risk and reward.

On paper a well financed right of centre candidate is a good idea and could do well, providing the right of centre vote is unified and their campaign is coherent. That being said the possibility of George Smitherman stepping into the ring probably complicates matters for any possible challengers. If Smitherman is in, he won’t formally enter until far closer to the election itself. His advantage is a strong, organized Liberal following in Toronto, where the overwhelming majority of MPP’s, MP’s and voters are Liberal. His involvement with Bob Rae’s last two leadership campaigns also has him in good stead with many Liberal operatives who know a thing or two about running and winning elections. All of this is before his considerable resume is taken into account.

The risk here is that Minnon-Wong, Thompson and Stintz will all wait to watch what Smitherman does in hopes of not having to risk their day job unless victory is possible. But should Smitherman not run, and if these guys have put their ambitions on ice in fear of a possible third place finish; Toronto runs the risk of either seeing a repeat of the 2006 election, where a Councillor with limited name recognition runs a distant second, or what is more likely, a repeat of the 2000 election where an incumbent Mayor, people aren’t sure about, faces off against candidates with limited political and management experience.

In 2009 I believe it would be wise for people interested in how the 2010 Mayor’s race will shape up to watch Minnon-Wong, Thompson, Stintz and Smitherman. Of course, with a 200 dollar entry fee, there will likely be at least three dozen other people throwing their hats into the ring, but fewer than a handful to watch seriously.

Tags: 2006 Toronto Mayor's Race, 2010 Mayor's Race, Caledon Heritage Foundation, Case Ootes, David Miller, Denzil Minnon-Wong, Frances Nunziatta, George Mammolitti, George Smitherman, Jane Pitfield, Karen Stintz, Michael Thompson, Rob Ford, Toronto City Council