Seat Projection vs. Laforet’s Local Race Predictions
Nanos Sept 27: CON 39 LIB 25 NDP 19 BQ 8 GRN 9
H and K: CON 153 (+28) LIB 69 (-31) NDP 41 (+12) BQ 44 (-6) IND 1 (0)
What Laforet Actually Thinks Would Happen If the Election Was Today: CON 137, LIB 88, NDP 36, BQ 44, IND 1 (explanation below)
Ok. So I’ve decided to go back to my previous argument about H & K not being able to do the specific race thing really well. Sorry guys. Perhaps I am more partisan than your math and that is the reason. I’m not going to do this everyday, but felt I would at least once, and maybe periodically during the campaign and certainly on the eve of the election.
Examples of my disagreement with the seat projection:
Is there a thinking person anywhere in Canada who honestly believes Harper is going to GAIN any seats in Newfoundland? Conventional thinking is that being able to maintain what he currently will be a big enough challenge.
H & K with the above numbers hands Harper five of seven seats in Newfoundland. I expect it will be more like one of seven.
That would put Harper closer to 149, and the Liberals at 73.
Hands up if you think Michael Ignatieff is going to lose to whoever the Tories are running against him? Anybody?
Conservatives 148, Liberals 74
A Tory in Kenora? Really?
Conservatives 147, Liberals 75
Tories in Mississauga Erindale or Mississauga South? Something tells me Alghabra and Szabo will be back in Ottawa defending Canadians interests soon after October 14th.
Conservatives 145, Liberals 77
Oakridges–Markham isn’t going to the Conservatives. The local MP is far too strong to lose to his Conservative opponent. A guy who had such good judgement he ran in Scarborough East for the Canadian Alliance.
Conservatives 144, Liberals 78
David McGuinty losing to a Tory? Not a chance. The brother of a popular Premier is not going anywhere.
Conservatives 143, Liberals 77
The NDP are not going to be the Liberals in Sudbury by like 60 votes. Anyone who won in 1988 will win in 2008.
Conservatives 143, Liberals 78, NDP 40
With no NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, how can Lunn win with just 36% of the vote?
Conservative 142, Liberals 79, NDP 40
Keith Martin definitely is not going to lose to a New Democrat. As a guy elected first under the Alliance banner and was able to survive a floor crossing, this election will not do him in.
Conservatives, 142, Liberals 80, NDP 39
Lisa Raitt is beyond incompetent and has no hope of beating Garth Turner.
Conservatives 141, Liberals 81, NDP 39
I strongly doubt four Liberal MPs in New Brunswick will lose their seats to Conservatives. Atlantic Canada is not that far to the right, and considering Lord’s government was defeated, it would be hard to believe this province is going blue.
Conservatives 137, Liberals 85, NDP, 39
GTA Liberals vs. the NDP: Gerard Kennedy, Maria Minna, Christine Innes, and Tyler Banham all have strong chances of winning their respective races.
Conservatives 137, Liberals 88, NDP 36
Tags: Seat Projections
September 29th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Good Day Mmr. Laforet:
I’ve read your predictions on Garth Turner’s website and was wondering if they are of your own personal view or whether they’re based on data outside of Nanos and H&K?
You seemed to specifically point out Lisa Raitt,is your view based on interviews or conversations with her? Have you had any contact with Lisa Raitt?
Thank-You
Bo
September 29th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Garth mentioned this entry in his blog? Cool. I’ll need to check that out.
I am not aware of any Halton specific data and have no access to either campaign’s voter ID. I’ve also been asked if I felt calling someone beyond incompetent was wise since I’ve posted this. My response was yes, because in Raitt’s case her experience proves this.
Raitt is the President of the Toronto Port Authority. It is one of the worst managed government agencies in the GTA. This organization finds new and innovative ways of alienating Torontonians and waste our money on bogus projects almost annually.
Anyone remember the fast ferry to Rochester? Ask Lisa how much they blew on that gem being built just in time for the fast ferry to fail? It is now a movie set. Good one.
Remember the bridge to the island airport? How much did her organization waste on a project that never happened and would have harmed freighter traffic (kind of the point of a harbour no?)
There was a big deal made about a crumbling sea wall in the Western Gap that for some reason between the Port Authority and the Federal government they felt the City should pay to fix. Ports are a federal jurisdiction and run by Raitt’s organization.
This ‘executive’ experience Raitt has is mismanaging a government organization that excels only at losing money and making poor decisions from one of the only Harbour commission offices in the world that cannot actually see it’s port. She is so well thought of here, both David Miller and Olivia Chow were able to win the Mayor’s chair and the federal seat in Trinity Spadina on Raitt’s bridge.
I could go on, but that entry was meant to highlight how Turner’s main opposition is so inadequate in comparison that national trends will not matter in Halton and all I have provided so far has been from memory as someone who uses the Harbour regularly and used to be employed in the port, although not for the Port Authority itself.